Friday, April 10, 2009

Is the economy getting any better?



Banking sector improving -- over the weekend, anyway

In a glimmer of hope for the banking sector, Wells Fargo shares soared nearly 32% in early market trading on news that it had a better-than-expected profit of approximately $3 billion in the most recent quarter. Wells Fargo attributed the latest results to strong performances in its traditional banking and mortgage businesses. The news sent bank stocks higher across the board -- including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley -- driving the Dow up over 200 points in early trading.

Economy beginning to turn?
According to the Wall Street Journal, there's a growing body of evidence that the economy is beginning to make a cyclical turn: wholesale inventories fell by the largest increment on record, and the inventory-to-sales ratio, the most direct measure of supply and demand in the economy, showed that the latter is gradually catching up with the former. Treasury prices declined, with the 10-year note sliding 16/32 to yield 2.921%, oil prices gained and gold prices fell, while the dollar strengthened against the yen and the euro.

Unemployment numbers slow, but unemployment stays high
If jobs were dollars, this would sound a lot like the national deficit, except that unfortunately the president can't just print more jobs to make up for it. The number of people filling for unemployment benefits dipped to 654,000, but continuing claims hit a record high. In the week ended April 4, a total of 654,000 people filed initial jobless claims, lower than the previous week's upwardly revised 674,000, the Labor Department reported. The 4-week moving average of people filing initial claims for unemployment benefits was 657,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 658,000. A consensus estimate of economists polled by Briefing.com expected 660,000 first-time filers last week.

Trade deficit shrinking
A new government report reveals that the U.S. trade deficit shrank in February by 28.3% to its smallest level since November 1999 as imports slowed and exports grew slightly in the face of shrinking global demand. The monthly trade gap dropped to $26 billion, down more than $10 billion from the revised $36.2 billion deficit in January, and about $10 billion less than Wall Street economist polled by Reuters had forecast. The February percentage drop was the steepest since a 34.9% fall in October 1996. Overall world trade is expected to fall this year for the first time since 1982 as businesses and consumers cut back on spending in response to growing job losses and a continuing credit crisis. Imports fell across all major categories, with crude oil imports falling to $39.22 from $39.81 the prior month. Exports increased slightly across all major categories: food, feed and beverages, industrial supplies, capital goods, automotive and consumer goods.

What to do with toxic assets?
As part of its plan to sell toxic assets, the Obama administration is encouraging several large investment companies to create bailout funds, not unlike the war bonds sold to finance WW II. Well, except that one was for a noble cause and the other is for banks... The idea is to share the risk, and give ordinary Americans a chance to profit from the bailouts that are being financed by their tax dollars. Or lose, and there's the rub. If, as some analysts suspect, the banks' assets are worth even less than believed, the funds' investors could lose.

Berkshire Hathaway downgraded
This one disturb my mind!
Berkshire Hathaway, the legendary company owned by Warren Buffett, has lost its coveted top-level credit rating from Moody's Investors Service. Moody's downgraded Berkshire by two notches to Aa2 from Aaa, claiming that severe stock price declines and the U.S. recession have weakened National Indemnity Company -- an important Berkshire reinsurance subsidiary. Moody's says the outlook for its rating is now stable and says it has no plans to make further cuts over the next 12 to 18 months. Before we all panic, hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson said that the Moody's downgrade will have no effect on Berkshire's holdings, and only a very small potential impact on its earnings. It may face slightly higher borrowing costs, but Tilson notes that Berkshire has lots of cash and doesn't do much borrowing anyway.

Crackdown on scams
Yes you hear right SCAMS
Hard times always brings out the scammers, and this one is no exception. According to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), a multi-agency crackdown is set to target real estate scams and frauds, as well as bolster state and federal action and efforts to protect homeowners. An online survey by the FTC found 71 distinct companies running suspicious ads, and a Treasury committee found nearly 180,000 fraudulent mortgage reports. The FBI is currently investigating more than 2,100 mortgage fraud cases, up 400 percent from five years ago, according to ABC News. Among those involved in the effort are the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), and the Attorney General of Illinois.

Uptick rule back again?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will consider four proposals to restrict short selling - a bet that a given stock will fall. As it stands now, speculators can leap on a declining stock and drive it down further, according to many executives. At its Wednesday meeting the Securities and Exchange Commission will consider, among other ideas, the restoration of the "uptick rule," which allowed short sales only in cases where the last price was higher than the previous price. SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro said at the Council of Institutional Investors conference that they'll be looking at different proposals, including a so-called "bid test" and a "circuit breaker." Schapiro did not provide details on how the bid test or circuit breaker could work and did not elaborate on the fourth proposal.

The Puma NO not the Shoes
Will urban streets soon be clogged with two wheeled electric automobiles that look more like partially assembled wheelchairs than cars? They will if General Motors (GM) gets its wish. GM is teaming with Segway Inc., maker of the upright, self-balancing scooters to build the PUMA, an acronym for Personal Urban Mobility and Accessibility. The machine, which GM says it aims to develop by 2012, runs on batteries, has a range of about 35 miles between charges, and uses wireless technology to avoid traffic backups and navigate cities. GM didn't say how much the machines would cost, but research chief Larry Burns said owners would spend one-third to one-fourth of the cost of a traditional vehicle. Well, we all said we wanted change, right?

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